Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 40.024448 47.262216 55.183140 64.462287 75.000024 86.560110 100.164884
2024-12-29 29.874998 39.625983 51.310917 66.199413 84.506324 106.115046 133.368612
2025-01-05 23.093457 33.622001 47.171850 65.578702 89.583323 119.451539 159.000125
2025-01-12 20.220749 31.732772 47.410429 69.790108 100.304321 139.786279 193.950734
2025-01-19 15.654762 26.582256 42.361780 66.047937 99.805261 145.185379 209.603908
2025-01-26 13.766678 24.946269 41.877805 68.332979 107.368144 161.415432 240.161002
2025-02-02 12.788943 24.518947 43.025073 72.935572 118.362013 182.803476 278.703669
2025-02-09 11.427478 23.215893 42.602841 75.016833 125.670998 199.254339 311.031671
2025-02-16 10.109416 21.756211 41.708443 76.180747 131.543030 213.793372 341.168842
2025-02-23 8.799360 20.083565 40.227419 76.185493 135.504097 225.579325 367.691316
2025-03-02 7.447439 18.091639 37.931079 74.559840 136.661333 233.066911 388.027160
2025-03-09 6.571706 16.892137 36.885984 74.914743 140.947968 245.431673 416.083132
2025-03-16 5.038346 14.119727 32.768699 69.840003 136.499848 244.929245 426.136936
2025-03-23 4.464351 13.369927 32.481861 71.740732 144.166243 264.358044 468.565695
2025-03-30 3.744168 12.098205 30.940104 71.080462 147.242530 276.415852 499.823292
2025-04-06 3.544074 12.083641 32.023565 75.581537 159.823984 304.815783 558.591367
2025-04-13 2.764179 10.321892 29.019860 71.582363 156.496338 306.140090 573.101866
2025-04-20 2.512944 9.976276 29.162052 74.024643 165.337868 328.708457 623.708411
2025-04-27 2.425351 10.101053 30.426384 78.941195 179.200448 360.632226 691.236683
2025-05-04 2.200794 9.738191 30.450638 81.163278 187.937595 383.864027 744.843644
2025-05-11 1.956017 9.238877 30.055987 82.405646 194.788530 403.993635 793.843501
2025-05-18 1.691266 8.586605 29.160983 82.410711 199.118546 419.709191 835.727499
2025-05-25 1.401794 7.738436 27.594626 80.675423 199.725839 428.561630 865.842924